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PROJECTIONS OF EDUCATION STATISTICS: Number of Hispanic and Asian Graduates Expected to Significantly Increase Over the Next Decade

Although only a slight increase is expected in the overall number of high school graduates over the next few years, much larger increases are expected for Hispanic and Asian students, according to a new report from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). Projections of Education Statistics to 2019 is the 38th report of a series begun in 1964 and examines elementary and secondary enrollment, high school graduation rates, the number of teachers, school expenditures, and enrollment in postsecondary degree-granting institutions.

Nationally, the study finds that the overall number of high school graduates increased by 27 percent between School Years (SY) 1994–95 and 2006–07. A further increase of only 1 percent is expected between SY 2006–07 and SY 2019–20. Over that same time period, the number of high school graduates is expected to increase by 60 percent for Hispanic students and 39 percent for Asian/Pacific Islander students. The number of graduates is expected to decrease by 13 percent for white students and by 2 percent for black and American Indiana/Alaska Native students. NCES defines a high school graduate as an individual who has received formal recognition from school authorities by the granting of a diploma.

The report finds that public and private elementary and secondary enrollment increased 10 percent from fall 1994 to fall 2007. Looking at only secondary schools, the report finds that enrollment increased 23 percent between 1994 and 2007 and is projected to increase by less than 1 percent between 2007 and 2019. While the enrollment rate for all grades is expected to increase 6 percent by 2019, 36 percent of enrollment increases are predicted for Hispanic students, 31 percent for Asian/Pacific Islands, and 13 percent for American Indians/Alaskan Natives. Enrollment for white and black students is expected to decrease by 4 percent.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2019 finds that current expenditures per pupil increased 29 percent from SY 1994–95 to 2006–07, and is projected to increase by 14 percent, to $11,400, by SY 2019–20. To read the full report visit: http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2011017.

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